BREAKING: Three Insights on Religion and the 2024 Election from PRRI's First Post-Election Survey

PLUS, PLUS, 5 free books still available as part of my paid subscriber holiday book giveaway.

On Friday, PRRI released the results of our first post-election study, based on a new survey of 4,757 voters—one of the first large scale random probability surveys to be released. The study explores the U.S. political and cultural landscape after the 2024 election, including the impact of partisanship, race, and religion on voters’ choices and their feelings about the election’s outcome.

You can tune in to the survey release webinar below, featuring insights from PRRI CEO Melissa Deckman and me, along with:

• Christopher Parker, Ph.D., Professor of Political Science and Director of Graduate Studies at UC Santa Barbara; and

• Efrén Pérez, Ph.D., Professor of Political Science and Psychology at UCLA.

Three Highlights from PRRI’s Post-election Survey

The Color Line in the American Religious Electorate

As has been the case for the last four decades, when the political parties began sorting themselves along ethno-religious lines in the wake of the Civil Rights movement, the largest voting divides among Christian voters are marked by racial and ethnic identity.

• White evangelical Protestants continue to be Trump’s most stalwart supporters, with 85% reporting that they voted for the President-elect. Notably, nearly six in ten white Catholics (59%) and white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (57%) each also voted for Trump.

• The only non-white Christian group voting majority for Trump is Hispanic Protestants (64%), who strongly identify as evangelical or born again.

• Catholics are also strongly divided along racial and ethnic lines. Nearly six in ten white Catholics, compared to only 43% of Hispanic Catholics, voted for Trump; a majority (55%) of Hispanic Catholics voted for Harris.¹

• Strong majorities of Black Protestants, adherents of non-Christian religions, and religiously unaffiliated voters report voting for Harris.

Dispelling Two Zombie Myths about White Evangelical Support for Trump

There is no evidence to support what I have identified as two “zombie myths” (because they just won’t die despite lack of evidence) about white evangelical voters: 1) that they were reluctant Trump voters; or 2) that Trump’s strongest supporters in this group were Christians-in-name-only (CINO).

1. White evangelical Protestants were not “holding their nose” while voting for Trump. Heading into the 2024 election, Trump’s favorability among white evangelical voters was 73%—far above even other Trump-supporting groups such as white non-evangelical Protestants (53%) and white Catholics (51%). And two-thirds (64%) of white evangelical voters also strongly supported Trump’s most racist and even Nazi-echoing statements, such as his assertion that immigrants living in the country illegally were “poisoning the blood” of the nation.

2. Among white evangelicals, those most closely connected with churches were more likely, not less likely, to support Trump. While solid majorities of white evangelical Protestants overwhelmingly supported Trump across all levels of church attendance, weekly church attenders report voting for Trump at significantly higher levels (88%) than those who seldom or never attend church (77%). In other words, it is churchgoing white evangelicals, not their less churched kin, who are the most supportive of Trump and the MAGA movement.

• Notably, the opposite church attendance pattern appears among white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants and among African American Protestants. In these Christian groups, more frequent church attendance is correlated with lower support for Trump.

Home for the Holidays? The Electoral Fallout

During the upcoming holiday season, nearly one in four Democratic voters say they will be spending less time with certain family members due to political differences.

Just 12% of American voters say they will be spending less time with certain family members because of their political views this holiday season. But Democratic voters (23%) are nearly five times as likely as Republican voters (5%) to say they will be spending less time with certain family members because of their political views.

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Holiday Offer - Free Signed Book with Annual Paid Subscription

And—a special bonus offer—my publisher made 25 copies of my latest book, The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy and the Path to a Shared American Future, available to give away as an incentive for new annual paid subscriptions to my newsletter this month. Twenty of these have already been claimed, but there are 5 free copies still available.

To qualify, simply be one of the next 5 new annual paid subscribers in December; then, just drop me an email (robertpjones.substack@gmail.com) telling me where to mail the book and how you’d like it inscribed.

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ICYMI at White Too Long

1. For those who have been tracking these numbers in the official exit polls, the PRRI findings of Hispanic Catholic vote differ from the NEP Exit Polls, which showed a remarkable 52% support for Trump—the first time Hispanic Catholics have ever registered majority support for Trump. Based on PRRI’s pre-election American Values Survey, the AP/Votecast exit poll, and this new PRRI survey, I believe the NEP Exit poll finding for Hispanic Catholics is an outlier.