There is No "God Gap." But There is a White Christian Church Gap.
Dispelling one of the most enduring myths about church attendance and voting behavior.
Dear #WhiteTooLong readers,
Well, it’s Election Day. This morning, my family joined my neighbors on our traditional walk to our local polling place on a beautiful fall morning. At our polling place, the lines were short and people were nervous but generally in good spirits. The conversation there and back included confessions of the things we’ve each been doing to cope with the stress that has come with the long anticipation of the election results. It was notable that so many of the activities had to do with cleaning, a way I suppose of bringing order to something under our control. (Quick reminder: Given how close the election seems to be, it will probably be end of the week, and maybe longer, before we have an official declaration of the winner. So get some sleep tonight!)
I’m working from home today, but yesterday I went into PRRI’s downtown DC office, which is just a few blocks from the White House. It was quieter than usual, and a number of businesses were preparing for the worst. The New York Times carried these two photos of a CVS and a Potbelly Sandwich shop that I regularly pass on my walk from the metro to the office.
These images are a stark reminder not only of the very real violence Trump incited on January 6, 2021, but of the chaos and violence Donald Trump may try to unleash should he lose today’s election. While most Republicans say they would reject Trump’s most extreme potential attempts to thwart democracy, a startlingly large minority told in PRRI’s recent American Values Survey told us they would support an outright coup or political violence:
Nearly one in four (23%) of Republicans who hold a favorable view of trump agreed with this statement: “If Donald Trump is not confirmed as the winner of the 2024 election, he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume his rightful place as president.”
And nearly three in ten (29%) Republicans agree with this one: “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.”
Like many of you, I’m doing what I can to ride this out. Incoming media interview requests, from both American and European outlets, have kept me fairly busy. And we’re gathering with friends tonight, less to watch the returns (which again, probably won’t tell us much) and more to just be together as we wait and hope that more Americans than not have voted to protect our democracy.
In the meantime, I’m sharing an insight on one of the perennial exit poll results about religion and politics that I find most misleading.
Wishing everyone stamina and peace and sustaining friendships over the next few days.
Robby
There is No "God Gap." But There is a White Christian Church Gap.
One of the oldest tropes in the area of religion and politics is the observation that the more Americans attend church, the more likely they are to vote Republican. There is, on the face of it, a kernel of truth to this claim. For example, in the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections, voters who attended religious services monthly or more supported Republican candidates by approximately a 60%-40% margin. those who attended religious services less frequently supported Democratic candidates by a nearly identical margin.
But these general population numbers hide dramatic differences by race and ethnicity, as the chart below demonstrates.
White Americans who attend religious services weekly or more are significantly more likely to support Trump (76%) than Harris (21%). The same pattern holds true for white Americans who attend religious services monthly or a few times a year, with 64% supporting Trump and 34% supporting Harris. In contrast, white Americans who seldom or never attend religious services are more likely to support Harris (56%) than Trump (43%).
This general pattern is also present among Hispanic voters, with one important caveat. Among Hispanic voters, the only group with a majority supporting Trump over Harris is the group of weekly or more church attenders (55% vs. 41%). Majorities of both those who attend monthly/a few times a year and those who seldom or never attend religious services support Harris.
Strikingly, the pattern among African Americans is reversed. Among Black Americans, those who attend religious services more regularly are less likely to support Trump than those who attend less frequently. Moreover, support for Harris over Trump is overwhelming among African Americans regardless of their church attendance patterns.
In other words, there is no “God gap” in U.S. elections. What we have can be more accurately described as a “white Christian church gap.” And the implications of that gap are disturbing. Not only are white Christian churchgoers more likely to support an authoritarian and fascist candidate like Trump, higher church attendance among whites is positively correlated with holding Christian nationalist attitudes and holding more racist and xenophobic attitudes.
As the week goes on, there will be endless speculation about which groups contributed to the election victory. (And given how close the election promises to be, almost all of these claims will be correct.) But one simple truth should not be forgotten amid all the exit poll slicing and dicing: Were it not for white Christian churchgoers, many of whom are still desperately clinging to the antidemocratic idea that America was intended by God to be a promised land for European Christians, this election would not even be close.
P.S. You’re Invited to a Special Live Post-Election Edition of The Convocation Unscripted
For the first time, we’ve decided to record the next session of The Convocation Unscripted as a free live Zoom webinar. We’re hoping you will join us on Thursday, 11/7, at 5:00 PM ET.
I didn't realize I was such a minority: I am white and attend a Presbyterian Church almost every Sunday: sing in the choir, I am Elder and a huge supporter of Democratic candidates: donate money, help with voter resignation, make phone calls, etc...Maybe there are more of us than the statistics state.